Winnipeg – The votes have been tallied, the winners have been declared … and the results of the 2011 Manitoba provincial election show that Probe Research forecast the election night results with pin-point precision.

According to Elections Manitoba’s preliminary results, 46 percent of Manitobans voted for the re-elected New Democratic Party – exactly mirroring the proportion of Manitobans who said they would vote for this party in a Probe Research Inc. survey of 1,000 voters conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press.

This Probe survey, conducted from Sept. 21 to 28, 2011, also correctly gauged that 43 percent of Manitobans would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, seven percent would vote Liberal and four percent would vote for the Green Party. The unofficial election night results show that the PCs received 44 percent of the vote, the Liberals finished with seven percent and the Greens with three percent – all well within the poll’s statistical margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Probe’s forecast for seat-rich Winnipeg was equally precise: the survey indicated 53 percent of Winnipeggers would vote NDP (the same proportion of Winnipeggers actually voted for this party), 35 percent would vote PC (actual result was 36%), seven percent would vote Liberal (actual result was 8%) and three percent would vote Green (actual result also 3%).

“We believe so strongly in our methodology and our approach that we were very certain that our survey results would mirror reality on Election Day,” Scott MacKay, Probe Research’s founder and president, explained. “We put a lot of work into assessing our sampling and measurement techniques in order to make sure they are the best they can be.”

There are a number of factors that explain Probe’s success in this provincial election campaign. These include:

Belief in a proven methodology: Probe Research maintains that random digit dialing (RDD) with live telephone interviewers is the optimal method for conducting a pre-election survey. Although criticisms have been leveled about telephone surveys not capturing certain types of respondents, the fact remains that this methodology remains the only way to achieve a true “random” sample that is subject to a statistical margin of error.

Proper sampling: Probe Research Inc. takes every step to ensure that a sample of survey respondents accurately reflects the population from which it is drawn. This includes confirming there is the correct mix of respondents taking our surveys – rural and urban, young and old, well-off and just getting by. Probe’s samples include cellphone numbers to ensure those from “cell-only” households have an opportunity to participate in our surveys. Our interviewers are also rigorous about making callbacks to randomly-selected respondents several times to ensure these households have an opportunity to take part in our surveys.

Attention to detail: Our dedicated team of research professionals works diligently to deliver to our clients and to the public the most accurate, precise marketing and public opinion research results. Companies and organizations make critical decisions based on our information – it is our duty and responsibility to make sure we get it right for them.

“There has been a lot of recent debate in the media and elsewhere about how accurate polls really are,” MacKay added. “These results vindicate our industry, and highlight the fact that our research approach works. People can be confident that when they see the results of a Probe Research poll, they are getting the gold standard of market research.”

Founded in 1994, Probe Research is a dynamic, non-partisan market and public opinion research firm that is committed to providing accurate and reliable professional research services. Headquartered in Winnipeg, Manitoba, we serve more than 300 clients throughout North America, including federal and provincial governments, Crown corporations, Fortune 500 companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, associations and not-for-profit organizations.

View comparison of Manitoba and Winnipeg results

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Probe Research

Winnipeg – Many of those who will remain on the sidelines when Manitobans cast ballots on Tuesday, Oct. 4, will tend to be younger, socio-economically disadvantaged and based in rural Manitoba, a Probe Research survey of 1,000 Manitobans for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

Overall, seven-in-ten Manitobans (72%) say they are very certain they will go to the polling stations Oct. 4th to cast ballots in the 2011 Manitoba election, while an additional 12 percent are somewhat certain to exercise their democratic franchise. One-in-ten (10%) may or may not vote Tuesday, while six percent are absolutely certain they will not cast a ballot in the upcoming election.

Those who were unlikely to vote included:

- Younger adults aged 18-34 years (27% "may not" or "will not" vote, compared to 13% of those aged 35-54 years and 8% of those aged 55 years and over).

- Adults with lower levels of formal education (21%, versus 11% among those who completed university or college).

- Those from lower-income households (23% of those earning $30,000-$59,999/year and 22% of those earning less than $30,000/year, versus 9% of those from households with incomes greater than $100,000/year).

- Those living outside Winnipeg (21%, versus 12% among Winnipeg residents).

In terms of reasons offered for not voting, the main rationale offered by non-voters is that they do not feel qualified or knowledgeable enough to vote (25%), with others indicating that they feel too busy (16%) or not sufficiently interested in politics to cast a ballot (14%).

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via
telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011
among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of
1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Democracy Project, Probe Research, Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg – With health care and crime foremost on the minds of most Manitoba voters, the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives can each lay claim to holding public confidence on one of these pressing concerns. Health care is an area where voters expect a better performance from the NDP, while voters are more likely to turn to the PCs for solutions to their fears about crime. These findings emerged from a province-wide telephone survey of 1,000 adults conducted by Probe Research exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press.

Other survey findings reveal that voters are more likely to entrust the Progressive Conservatives to manage economic issues, while voters are more likely to view the NDP as the party best suited to improve public education and manage the province’s largest public utility, Manitoba Hydro.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, crime, health care, Probe Research

Winnipeg – NDP leader Greg Selinger enters the final days of the 2011 provincial election campaign with the highest approval ratings of any party leader, a Probe Research telephone survey of 1,000 Manitobans for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

Although Mr. Selinger’s approval ratings remain well below those of his predecessor, Gary Doer, Manitobans have warmed up to the new NDP leader more than his two main rivals for the Premier’s chair – PC leader Hugh McFadyen or Liberal leader Jon Gerrard. Mr. Selinger’s popularity can also be credited to the support of two crucial voter factions in this campaign: women voters and post-secondary graduates.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Probe Research

Winnipeg – As the 2011 Manitoba election campaign enters its final stretch, Greg Selinger’s New Democrats enjoy a slight lead over Hugh McFadyen’s Progressive Conservatives, according to a Probe Research telephone survey of 1,000 Manitoba adults conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press.

Forty-six percent of decided Manitoba voters surveyed said they would re-elect the NDP to a fourth term, compared to 43 percent who intend to cast ballots for the Progressive Conservatives on October 4th.

Jon Gerrard’s Liberals, meanwhile, have faltered significantly in this campaign, sitting at just seven percent support among decided voters and now polling in the single digits alongside the James Beddome-led Green Party (4%). Nearly one-in-four survey respondents (23%) were unable or unwilling to identify their party preference.

Other significant findings from this survey include:

- Manitoba's electorate is highly polarized between rural and urban voters. NDP support province-wide is fuelled by its significant strength in Winnipeg, where more than one-half of decided voters intend to cast a ballot for this party. Support for the NDP is consistent with where it stood in the 2007 election (at 53%), with the PCs making some gains among the urban electorate, mainly at the expense of the Liberals. Outside Winnipeg, the Progressive Conservatives register an equally substantial lead over their NDP (54% vs. 41%), which has lost support in this region since the 2007 vote. These results suggest the next Legislature may be even more sharply divided along regional lines.

- Within Winnipeg, the race between the PCs and NDP is tightest in Southwest and Northwest Winnipeg. The NDP enjoys a small lead over the PCs in Southeast Winnipeg and are far in front of their rivals in Northeast Winnipeg and the Core Area. The Liberals are strongest in Southwest Winnipeg, but sit well behind the PCs and NDP in that area of the provincial capital.

- The NDP has a substantial lead among female voters (51%, versus 38% PC and 7% Liberal), while men prefer the PCs (48%, versus 40% NDP and 6% Liberal).

- Progressive Conservative and NDP supporters are equally firm in their intention to vote for their chosen party (63% and 61%, respectively, are very certain to vote for these parties). Liberal support, on the other hand, is more "soft," with just one-third of those who prefer the Liberals (35%) absolutely certain they will cast a ballot for this party.

- None of the three parties have impressed the Manitoba electorate during this campaign, as today voters are more likely to have slightly more negative than positive impressions of the NDP, PCs and Liberals compared to the beginning of the campaign.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Green Party of Manitoba, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party, Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg - Nearly three months out from Election Day, the latest Probe Research Inc. survey of 1,000 Manitoba adults reveals an increasingly polarized electorate as voters choose between the Progressive Conservative and New Democratic Parties while the Manitoba Liberals fade into obscurity.

After trailing the Progressive Conservatives for much of the past year, the New Democrats have regained their strength and are once again tied with the PCs at 44 percent. NDP support has increased by nine points since March (from 35% to 44%), while the PCs have dropped three percentage points (from 47% to 44%). This polarization of the provincial electorate has come largely at the expense of the Manitoba Liberal Party, which has the backing of just nine percent of decided voters (down from 14% in March).

Although much of the surge in NDP support comes from Winnipeg, where the party currently holds all but five seats, the NDP's standing has also improved significantly in rural Manitoba. Within Winnipeg, the NDP now have the support of fully one-half of the electorate (50%, versus 37% for the PCs and 11% for the Liberals). Outside the Perimeter Highway, the PCs continue to be far more popular than its rivals (55%, -7% since March), but the NDP now enjoys the backing of more than one-in-three voters outside the provincial capital (36%, up from 24% in March). Liberal support in this region, meanwhile, is practically non-existent (5%, down from 11%).

Other key findings from the survey include:

- Overall, a majority of Manitobans (70%) are satisfied with the overall direction of the province, although those living in Winnipeg are more likely than those outside the province's capital to indicate that the province is on the right path (74%, versus 63% respectively). NDP supporters (85%) are also far more inclined to feel that Manitoba is headed in the right direction, although a majority of those who prefer the Liberals and PCs (68% and 61% respectively) also feel the province is on the right track.

- Progressive Conservative supporters are more likely to follow through and actually cast a ballot for this party's candidates on Election Day, with 68 percent indicating they are "very certain" to vote PC on October 4th. About one-half (52%) of those who prefer the NDP are very committed to actually voting for this party, while just one-quarter of Liberal backers (26%) are positive this party will be their actual choice in the voting booth.

- Younger voters aged 18-34 years are more likely to support the NDP (46%, versus 37% who plan to vote for the PCs) and are also more likely to believe the province is heading in the right direction (76%, versus 67% of those aged 18-34 years and 66% of those aged 55 years and over).

- PC support is stronger among Older voters aged 55 years and over (53%, versus 40% NDP), individuals with higher household incomes (50% of those earning more than $100,000/year, versus 40% NDP) and those with a high school diploma or less (53%, versus 36% NDP).

Methodology: This province-wide Omnibus survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between June 7th and June 25th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – The last time Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives enjoyed the support of nearly half the Manitoba electorate, Gary Filmon was still premier, U.S. President Bill Clinton was being impeached for having an affair with a White House intern and the movie Titanic was shattering records at the box office.

More than a decade later, the latest Probe Research Inc. quarterly survey reveals that support for the Progressive Conservative Party has soared, as 47 percent of decided voters now say they would cast ballots for this party. This survey also reveals that those who would cast ballots for the Progressive Conservatives are among the most committed voters, with fully six-in-ten indicating they are very likely to cast ballots for the PCs in the Oct. 4 provincial election (60%, versus 49% of NDP supporters and only 24% among Liberal supporters).

Other highlights of the survey include:

- Despite recording their biggest lead province-wide, the PCs are slightly behind the NDP in Winnipeg, where the New Democrats currently hold 26 of 31 seats (37% of Winnipeg voters would cast ballots for the PCs, versus 42% who support the NDP and 16% who prefer the Liberals).

- Outside Winnipeg, more than six-in-ten voters prefer the PCs (62%, versus 24% for the NDP and 11% for the Liberals)

- Two-thirds of Manitobans think the province is heading in the right direction (65%, versus 21% who think Manitoba is heading down the wrong track). Although PC and Liberal supporters are more likely than those who would vote for the NDP to believe the province is headed in the wrong direction, a majority of these voters still think the province is on the right path.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Manitoba Liberal Party, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – Political parties broadcast television ads which criticize their opponents because they are seen to be effective. But a Probe Research survey of 1,001 Manitobans conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press suggests that the first salvo fired by the NDP against Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen may have backfired on the New Democrats, as those who recall the NDP‟s “Know Hugh” ad campaign are more likely to have a better opinion of the Progressive Conservatives than those who did not see these ads.

Voters were asked if they had recently seen, read or heard any advertisements about Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen. Slightly more than one-half (57%) said they had seen these ads, which were broadcast on local television stations and on the Internet as well as complemented by direct mail and social media campaigns. More than one-third (37%) had not seen the ads and an additional six percent were unsure whether they had seen them or not. None of these survey respondents had been exposed to the more recent ads by the Progressive Conservatives that feature Hugh McFadyen rebutting NDP criticisms of his previous policy statements...

Interestingly, those who recalled these advertisements critical of PC leader Hugh McFadyen were more likely to have a higher opinion of the Progressive Conservative party today than those who did not recall these ads (17%, versus 7% respectively). There is virtually no difference in the proportion of voters who say their view of the PCs has declined when looking at those familiar and unfamiliar with the anti-McFadyen ads (17%, versus 15% respectively). However, those who were aware of the ad were more likely to have a more-negative impression of the NDP today than those who did not see the ad (35%, versus 19% respectively).

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Hugh McFadyen, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives have opened up a slight lead over the governing New Democrats, but the race between the two major parties remains very close, a new Probe Research Inc. telephone survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

With ten months to go until Manitobans head to the polls, the Progressive Conservatives continue to be favoured by more than four-in-ten decided adult voters (42%, unchanged from September). Support for the NDP has decreased slightly since September (from 40% to 38%), while there has been a slight uptick in the proportion of adult citizens would cast ballots for the Manitoba Liberals (15%, +2% versus September).

Nearly one-half of those surveyed (49%) also believe it’s time for a new government in Manitoba, while one-third (34%) said the NDP should be re-elected to a fourth term. Fewer than one-in-five (17%) did not indicate a particular preference regarding which party should come into power following the next provincial election.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party