Probe Research Inc. - Recent Polls

Friday, January 02, 2015

Manitobans Want Expanded Child Care Spaces

Winnipeg – For the past decade, child care has been one of the key “wedge” issues in federal politics that divide the governing Conservatives from their Liberal and NDP opponents. A new Probe Research Inc. survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press shows that given the choice between these parties’ approaches, Manitobans prefer the Liberal/NDP option of creating more funded child care spaces to the Conservative policy of transferring money directly to parents with young children.

One-half of Manitoba adults (52%) indicated that they would prefer to see more publicly-funded child care spaces made available at a subsidized cost. Nearly one-third of those surveyed (32%), on the other hand, would rather have parents receive additional money through a dedicated child care benefit or enhanced family allowance cheque. Two percent of those surveyed said they want the federal government to provide both of these things, while seven percent did not prefer either of these options. As well, seven percent were unsure or did not respond.

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Friday, December 26, 2014

NDP Support Drops To New Low ... Again

Winnipeg - In the face of unprecedented political turmoil, a new Probe Research Inc. survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds that the provincial NDP’s support has reverted to its lowest recorded level, but has not crashed below its previous nadir.

One-in-four decided Manitoba voters (26%) would now cast a ballot for a NDP candidate. This is down four percentage points from September and is tied with the party’s lowest-ever level of support previously recorded in a Probe Research Inc. quarterly survey (26% in December 2013).

The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile, are surging (48%, up from 42% in September). The party’s increase in support is coming mainly from outside Winnipeg, where it is now the preferred party for two out of three voters (65%, compared to 15% each for the NDP and Liberals). Within the provincial capital, the PCs have a slight lead over the NDP (37% and 33% respectively).

Province-wide, the Liberals continue to enjoy the support of one-in-five voters (19%, -1% versus September). Liberal support is slightly higher in Winnipeg (22%) than in rural and northern Manitoba (15%). Seven percent of voters, meanwhile, would cast ballots for the Green Party and other parties not represented in the Legislature (-1% versus September). Fourteen percent of those surveyed were undecided.

Other highlights of this survey include:

- The PCs hold a statistically significant advantage over the NDP and Liberals in northwest Winnipeg (41%, versus 29% NDP and 26% Liberal), northeast Winnipeg (42%, versus 32% and 22% respectively) and southwest Winnipeg (42%, versus 31% and 18%). The PCs and NDP are statistically tied in southeast Winnipeg (35% and 34%, compared to 21% for the Liberals, while the NDP continues to be the most popular party ahead of the second-choice Liberals in the Core area (40%, versus 25% who would vote Liberal and 22% who would vote for the PCs).

- More than one-half of men would now vote for a Progressive Conservative candidate (56%, versus 21% NDP and 15% Liberal). The PCs are also the most popular party among women, though their advantage is less-pronounced than it is among men (40%, versus 30% NDP and 23% Liberal).

- Decided voters over the age of 35 are significantly more likely to prefer the PCs to other parties (52%). Among younger voters, two-in-five (40%) would vote for a PC candidate, compared to 28 percent who would vote for the NDP and 25 percent who prefer the Liberals.

- The Liberals are statistically tied with the PCs for support among lower-income Manitobans (31% and 34%, respectively, among those earning less than $30,000/year, with 21% indicating they would vote for a NDP candidate). The PCs enjoy more support among middle and higher-income earners.

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Saturday, December 20, 2014

Selinger Loses Support Among Manitobans

A new province-wide survey conducted by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press shows that Premier Greg Selinger’s approval rating has not only plummeted in the past two years, but the support he has left is relatively soft.

Overall, one-quarter of Manitobans (28%) approve of Mr. Selinger’s job performance to some degree. However, only five percent of those surveyed strongly approve of Mr. Selinger, with the remainder (23%) only offering a moderate level of approval. A majority of voters (55%) do not approve of Mr. Selinger’s job performance, with more than one-third (36%) expressing strong disapproval.

Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister has earned the approval of nearly one-half of Manitobans (47%, including 12% who strongly approve of his job performance). One-quarter do not think Mr. Pallister is doing a good job as Tory leader (25%, including 12% who strongly disapprove), while 28 percent were unable or unwilling to offer a rating.

Only three-in-ten Manitoba voters (31%) approve of new Liberal Party Leader Rana Bokhari’s job performance, including just four percent who strongly approve of her work. This is compared to 13 percent who strongly or moderately disapprove of the fledgling Liberal leader’s performance thus far. The majority (57%) were not able to provide an opinion.

Other survey highlights include:

· Mr. Pallister has a much higher approval rating among voters living outside Winnipeg than among those residing in the provincial capital (58% strongly or moderately approve, versus 39% respectively).

· Greg Selinger has a slightly higher approval rating among Winnipeg voters (31%, versus 23% among those living outside Winnipeg).

· Men were also more likely to offer praise for Mr. Selinger’s leadership (56%, versus 38% among women).

· Younger adults aged 18-34 years were more likely to approve of Ms. Bokhari’s leadership (37%, versus 23% among those aged 55 years and over).

View detailed findings and methodology

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Manitobans Take the Rebels' Side

Winnipeg – Their public criticism of Premier Greg Selinger divided the New Democratic Party and touched off a leadership contest. Now, a new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals that a majority of Manitobans believe the rebel ex-NDP cabinet ministers who publicly challenged Mr. Selinger’s leadership were justified to do so.

One-half of Manitoba adults (52%) said the so-called “Gang of 5” – Jennifer Howard, Theresa Oswald, Erin Selby, Andrew Swan and Stan Struthers – were right to take their concerns about Greg Selinger’s leadership public. One-quarter of those surveyed (26%), on the other hand, believe these ex-cabinet ministers were wrong to criticize Selinger’s leadership. About one-in-five (22%) did not take a stand either way on this question.

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Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Political Turmoil Worries Manitoba Business Leaders

Winnipeg - A new Probe Research Inc. survey suggests the recent political turmoil on Broadway has shaken Manitoba’s business community, with a dwindling number of corporate leaders expressing confidence in the provincial government’s ability to make the province attractive environment for business.

The latest results of Probe Research’s annual Manitoba Business Leaders Index, which is an annual survey of 200 CEOs and business owners, shows that just 13 percent of provincial CEOs and business owners feel the Manitoba government is doing a good job of maintaining a pro-business climate in the province. This is a significant drop since this question was last asked in 2010, when 26 percent felt the province was doing a good job of encouraging business growth and investment. Meanwhile, one-third of business leaders (34%) gave the federal government approving grades for its business policies, while a slightly smaller number (28%) praised local governments for their efforts to encourage business development.

Other highlights of this year’s Manitoba Business Leaders Index include:

Nearly two-thirds of surveyed business leaders are currently optimistic about Manitoba’s economic future (64%, including 21% who are very optimistic). This is down by six percentage points since last year and off by fully 14 percentage points from the all- time high level mark posted in 2012.
Fewer than one-half of surveyed CEOs (42%) expect their companies to be performing better financially in the year ahead – down by fully 10 percent since last year and reaching a new low not equaled since 2011.
About one-in-five Manitoba employers (22%, virtually unchanged from 21% in 2013 and 22% in 2012) expect to hire more staff within the coming year, with eight percent of those surveyed indicating that they expect to reduce employee levels within the next 12 months.
Slightly less than one-half of employers (47%) currently report that they have experienced difficulty finding skilled employees for their companies in 2014. This figure is almost identical to those posted in 2012 and 2013
Nearly one-in-five CEOs (19%) now report that they will probably have to cut back the size of their workforces or reduce staff working hours in the next six months. This figure is up only slightly from 17 percent last year, although this current figure is the highest level recorded since 2007.

The Manitoba Business Leaders Index is an annual scientific survey of the provincial business landscape as expressed by senior business officials from across the province. The survey sample includes a stratified sampling of CEOs, presidents, business owners and designated senior corporate officers from 200 small, mid-sized and large commercial “establishments” as defined by Statistics Canada and the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics. This business sampling includes publicly traded and private companies from all major sectors of Manitoba industry. Executive telephone interviews were conducted with 200 CEOs, business owners and corporate executives between November 12th and December 9th, 2014. With the sample size of 200, one can say these results are accurate within ± 6.9% of what they would be had the entire population of Manitoba business leaders been surveyed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the demographic sub-groups.

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Thursday, October 09, 2014

September 2014 Manitoba Party Standings

Winnipeg – A new Probe Research survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press and CTV Winnipeg shows the Manitoba Progressive Conservative party with a comfortable 12-point advantage over the governing New Democrats.

The Progressive Conservatives currently have the support of 42 percent of decided Manitoba voters, down slightly from the level of support the party recorded in June (-3%). Three-in-ten decided voters, meanwhile, would cast a ballot for the New Democratic Party in a hypothetical general election (30%, down from 32% in June). One-in-five voters (20%) now prefer the provincial Liberals – which marks a slight increase (+4%) since the last Probe Research survey in June. Eight percent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Green Party or other parties not represented in the Legislature.

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Labels: Brian Pallister, Greg Selinger, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba NDP, Manitoba politics, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, Rana Bokhari

Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Some Hopeful, Others Cynical About Next Winnipeg City Council

Winnipeg – Some elections bring expectations of major change, with voters likely to cast out the old and elect new, fresh faces. A Winnipeg Free Press-CTV Winnipeg survey conducted by Probe Research Inc. reveals that while Winnipeggers are split on whether Winnipeg City Council will be transformed after the election on October 22, they do not have a great appetite for removing incumbent councillors.

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Recent Polls

Manitobans Want Expanded Child Care Spaces

NDP Support Drops To New Low ... Again

Selinger Loses Support Among Manitobans

Manitobans Take the Rebels' Side

Political Turmoil Worries Manitoba Business Leaders

September 2014 Manitoba Party Standings

Some Hopeful, Others Cynical About Next Winnipeg City Council