Brandon – A majority of Brandon adults are not prepared to roll the dice on a casino in downtown Brandon, a new Probe Research survey of 400 Brandon adults conducted for the Brandon Sun reveals.

The City of Brandon’s recently-released Roadmap for Growth Strategic Plan includes the possibility of establishing an “entertainment complex” on vacant land in downtown Brandon. When asked whether or not it would be appropriate to include a casino in this entertainment centre, a majority of Brandon adults (53%) said this would not be the proper venue for a casino. Four-in-ten citizens (41%), on the other hand, agree this would be an appropriate site for a casino.

When asked to indicate if their views towards a casino have changed since the 2008 casino plebiscite, fully one-third of Brandon residents (34%) are now more inclined to support a casino, with a similar proportion (35%) indicating that their opinions have not changed one way or the other during this interval. One-quarter of those surveyed (24%), meanwhile, are more likely to oppose a casino today.

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Labels: Brandon casino, Brandon issues, downtown Brandon, Probe Research

Brandon – The City of Brandon’s 2012 budget is a major cause for concern among Brandonites, as city focus upon imminent tax increases as the most pressing concern facing the Wheat City.

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Winnipeg – Manitoba’s business community has a clear message for Manitoba’s re-elected NDP government – “lower taxes,” especially those paid by the province’s corporations. This finding emerges from the Manitoba Business Leaders Index, Probe Research Inc.’s annual survey of 200 Manitoba CEOs and business owners released exclusively to the Winnipeg Free Press.

The main requests of Manitoba’s business leaders for Greg Selinger's government are to lower business taxes (27%), eliminate the payroll tax (15%) and reduce other taxes (9%). Other advice from CEOs includes leaving the minimum wage at its current level, shrinking the provincial bureaucracy and attracting new businesses to the province (7% each).

Additional findings from this survey include:

• Three-quarters of Manitoba business leaders (74%) remain optimistic about the province’s economic prospects. This corporate economic outlook is similar to the level of confidence expressed by all Manitoba adults (78%).

• Slightly less than one-half of CEOs (45%) expect their own companies to be performing better at this time next year, compared to 44 percent who expect to remain at the same level at this time next year. Only eight percent of CEOs are braced for worse results in 2012.

• The number of companies reporting that they are experiencing a shortage of skilled labour has increased slightly in the past year, with more than one-half (52%) now saying it is difficult to find skilled employees.

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Labels: Greg Selinger, Manitoba Business Leaders Index, Manitoba economy, NDP, Probe Research

Winnipeg – The votes have been tallied, the winners have been declared … and the results of the 2011 Manitoba provincial election show that Probe Research forecast the election night results with pin-point precision.

According to Elections Manitoba’s preliminary results, 46 percent of Manitobans voted for the re-elected New Democratic Party – exactly mirroring the proportion of Manitobans who said they would vote for this party in a Probe Research Inc. survey of 1,000 voters conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press.

This Probe survey, conducted from Sept. 21 to 28, 2011, also correctly gauged that 43 percent of Manitobans would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, seven percent would vote Liberal and four percent would vote for the Green Party. The unofficial election night results show that the PCs received 44 percent of the vote, the Liberals finished with seven percent and the Greens with three percent – all well within the poll’s statistical margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.

Probe’s forecast for seat-rich Winnipeg was equally precise: the survey indicated 53 percent of Winnipeggers would vote NDP (the same proportion of Winnipeggers actually voted for this party), 35 percent would vote PC (actual result was 36%), seven percent would vote Liberal (actual result was 8%) and three percent would vote Green (actual result also 3%).

“We believe so strongly in our methodology and our approach that we were very certain that our survey results would mirror reality on Election Day,” Scott MacKay, Probe Research’s founder and president, explained. “We put a lot of work into assessing our sampling and measurement techniques in order to make sure they are the best they can be.”

There are a number of factors that explain Probe’s success in this provincial election campaign. These include:

Belief in a proven methodology: Probe Research maintains that random digit dialing (RDD) with live telephone interviewers is the optimal method for conducting a pre-election survey. Although criticisms have been leveled about telephone surveys not capturing certain types of respondents, the fact remains that this methodology remains the only way to achieve a true “random” sample that is subject to a statistical margin of error.

Proper sampling: Probe Research Inc. takes every step to ensure that a sample of survey respondents accurately reflects the population from which it is drawn. This includes confirming there is the correct mix of respondents taking our surveys – rural and urban, young and old, well-off and just getting by. Probe’s samples include cellphone numbers to ensure those from “cell-only” households have an opportunity to participate in our surveys. Our interviewers are also rigorous about making callbacks to randomly-selected respondents several times to ensure these households have an opportunity to take part in our surveys.

Attention to detail: Our dedicated team of research professionals works diligently to deliver to our clients and to the public the most accurate, precise marketing and public opinion research results. Companies and organizations make critical decisions based on our information – it is our duty and responsibility to make sure we get it right for them.

“There has been a lot of recent debate in the media and elsewhere about how accurate polls really are,” MacKay added. “These results vindicate our industry, and highlight the fact that our research approach works. People can be confident that when they see the results of a Probe Research poll, they are getting the gold standard of market research.”

Founded in 1994, Probe Research is a dynamic, non-partisan market and public opinion research firm that is committed to providing accurate and reliable professional research services. Headquartered in Winnipeg, Manitoba, we serve more than 300 clients throughout North America, including federal and provincial governments, Crown corporations, Fortune 500 companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, associations and not-for-profit organizations.

View comparison of Manitoba and Winnipeg results

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Probe Research

Winnipeg – Many of those who will remain on the sidelines when Manitobans cast ballots on Tuesday, Oct. 4, will tend to be younger, socio-economically disadvantaged and based in rural Manitoba, a Probe Research survey of 1,000 Manitobans for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

Overall, seven-in-ten Manitobans (72%) say they are very certain they will go to the polling stations Oct. 4th to cast ballots in the 2011 Manitoba election, while an additional 12 percent are somewhat certain to exercise their democratic franchise. One-in-ten (10%) may or may not vote Tuesday, while six percent are absolutely certain they will not cast a ballot in the upcoming election.

Those who were unlikely to vote included:

- Younger adults aged 18-34 years (27% "may not" or "will not" vote, compared to 13% of those aged 35-54 years and 8% of those aged 55 years and over).

- Adults with lower levels of formal education (21%, versus 11% among those who completed university or college).

- Those from lower-income households (23% of those earning $30,000-$59,999/year and 22% of those earning less than $30,000/year, versus 9% of those from households with incomes greater than $100,000/year).

- Those living outside Winnipeg (21%, versus 12% among Winnipeg residents).

In terms of reasons offered for not voting, the main rationale offered by non-voters is that they do not feel qualified or knowledgeable enough to vote (25%), with others indicating that they feel too busy (16%) or not sufficiently interested in politics to cast a ballot (14%).

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via
telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011
among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of
1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Democracy Project, Probe Research, Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg – With health care and crime foremost on the minds of most Manitoba voters, the New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives can each lay claim to holding public confidence on one of these pressing concerns. Health care is an area where voters expect a better performance from the NDP, while voters are more likely to turn to the PCs for solutions to their fears about crime. These findings emerged from a province-wide telephone survey of 1,000 adults conducted by Probe Research exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press.

Other survey findings reveal that voters are more likely to entrust the Progressive Conservatives to manage economic issues, while voters are more likely to view the NDP as the party best suited to improve public education and manage the province’s largest public utility, Manitoba Hydro.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, crime, health care, Probe Research

Winnipeg – NDP leader Greg Selinger enters the final days of the 2011 provincial election campaign with the highest approval ratings of any party leader, a Probe Research telephone survey of 1,000 Manitobans for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

Although Mr. Selinger’s approval ratings remain well below those of his predecessor, Gary Doer, Manitobans have warmed up to the new NDP leader more than his two main rivals for the Premier’s chair – PC leader Hugh McFadyen or Liberal leader Jon Gerrard. Mr. Selinger’s popularity can also be credited to the support of two crucial voter factions in this campaign: women voters and post-secondary graduates.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Probe Research