Saturday, December 20, 2014
Selinger Loses Support Among Manitobans
A new province-wide survey conducted by Probe Research for the Winnipeg Free Press shows that Premier Greg Selinger’s approval rating has not only plummeted in the past two years, but the support he has left is relatively soft.
Overall, one-quarter of Manitobans (28%) approve of Mr. Selinger’s job performance to some degree. However, only five percent of those surveyed strongly approve of Mr. Selinger, with the remainder (23%) only offering a moderate level of approval. A majority of voters (55%) do not approve of Mr. Selinger’s job performance, with more than one-third (36%) expressing strong disapproval.
Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister has earned the approval of nearly one-half of Manitobans (47%, including 12% who strongly approve of his job performance). One-quarter do not think Mr. Pallister is doing a good job as Tory leader (25%, including 12% who strongly disapprove), while 28 percent were unable or unwilling to offer a rating.
Only three-in-ten Manitoba voters (31%) approve of new Liberal Party Leader Rana Bokhari’s job performance, including just four percent who strongly approve of her work. This is compared to 13 percent who strongly or moderately disapprove of the fledgling Liberal leader’s performance thus far. The majority (57%) were not able to provide an opinion.
Probe Research last asked Manitobans to rate the performance of party leaders in October 2012. Premier and NDP Leader Greg Selinger’s approval rating has decreased from 50 percent at that time to 28 percent in this current sounding. Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister’s standing, meanwhile, rose from 33 percent to 47 percent. New Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari has earned the praise of three-in-ten Manitobans (31%), which is in line with the approval rating that her predecessor, Jon Gerrard, achieved in 2012 (33%).
For this survey, Probe Research also examined the perceptions of party supporters as they relate to their respective leaders. This analysis shows that Progressive Conservative supporters almost unanimously approve of the job Mr. Pallister is doing, with 86 percent (including 29% who strongly approve and 57% who moderately approve) praising his performance. Although two-thirds of NDP supporters approve of Mr. Selinger’s leadership, his support is relatively tepid, with only 14 percent offering strong approval and 53 percent indicating they moderately approve of his performance as leader. Ms. Bokhari finds herself in the same situation among Liberal Party supporters – while 69 percent overall think she is doing a good job, only 11 percent offered strong approval.
Other survey highlights include:
· Mr. Pallister has a much higher approval rating among voters living outside Winnipeg than among those residing in the provincial capital (58% strongly or moderately approve, versus 39% respectively).
· Greg Selinger has a slightly higher approval rating among Winnipeg voters (31%, versus 23% among those living outside Winnipeg).
· Men were also more likely to offer praise for Mr. Selinger’s leadership (56%, versus 38% among women).
· Younger adults aged 18-34 years were more likely to approve of Ms. Bokhari’s leadership (37%, versus 23% among those aged 55 years and over).
This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between December 1st and 12th, 2014 among a random and representative sampling of 1,002 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,002, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.