Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Probe Research Makes The Correct Call On Election Night
Winnipeg – The votes have been tallied, the winners have been declared … and the results of the 2011 Manitoba provincial election show that Probe Research forecast the election night results with pin-point precision.
According to Elections Manitoba’s preliminary results, 46 percent of Manitobans voted for the re-elected New Democratic Party – exactly mirroring the proportion of Manitobans who said they would vote for this party in a Probe Research Inc. survey of 1,000 voters conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press.
This Probe survey, conducted from Sept. 21 to 28, 2011, also correctly gauged that 43 percent of Manitobans would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, seven percent would vote Liberal and four percent would vote for the Green Party. The unofficial election night results show that the PCs received 44 percent of the vote, the Liberals finished with seven percent and the Greens with three percent – all well within the poll’s statistical margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Probe’s forecast for seat-rich Winnipeg was equally precise: the survey indicated 53 percent of Winnipeggers would vote NDP (the same proportion of Winnipeggers actually voted for this party), 35 percent would vote PC (actual result was 36%), seven percent would vote Liberal (actual result was 8%) and three percent would vote Green (actual result also 3%).
“We believe so strongly in our methodology and our approach that we were very certain that our survey results would mirror reality on Election Day,” Scott MacKay, Probe Research’s founder and president, explained. “We put a lot of work into assessing our sampling and measurement techniques in order to make sure they are the best they can be.”
There are a number of factors that explain Probe’s success in this provincial election campaign. These include:
Belief in a proven methodology: Probe Research maintains that random digit dialing (RDD) with live telephone interviewers is the optimal method for conducting a pre-election survey. Although criticisms have been leveled about telephone surveys not capturing certain types of respondents, the fact remains that this methodology remains the only way to achieve a true “random” sample that is subject to a statistical margin of error.
Proper sampling: Probe Research Inc. takes every step to ensure that a sample of survey respondents accurately reflects the population from which it is drawn. This includes confirming there is the correct mix of respondents taking our surveys – rural and urban, young and old, well-off and just getting by. Probe’s samples include cellphone numbers to ensure those from “cell-only” households have an opportunity to participate in our surveys. Our interviewers are also rigorous about making callbacks to randomly-selected respondents several times to ensure these households have an opportunity to take part in our surveys.
Attention to detail: Our dedicated team of research professionals works diligently to deliver to our clients and to the public the most accurate, precise marketing and public opinion research results. Companies and organizations make critical decisions based on our information – it is our duty and responsibility to make sure we get it right for them.
“There has been a lot of recent debate in the media and elsewhere about how accurate polls really are,” MacKay added. “These results vindicate our industry, and highlight the fact that our research approach works. People can be confident that when they see the results of a Probe Research poll, they are getting the gold standard of market research.”
Founded in 1994, Probe Research is a dynamic, non-partisan market and public opinion research firm that is committed to providing accurate and reliable professional research services. Headquartered in Winnipeg, Manitoba, we serve more than 300 clients throughout North America, including federal and provincial governments, Crown corporations, Fortune 500 companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, associations and not-for-profit organizations.
View comparison of Manitoba and Winnipeg results
- 30 -
According to Elections Manitoba’s preliminary results, 46 percent of Manitobans voted for the re-elected New Democratic Party – exactly mirroring the proportion of Manitobans who said they would vote for this party in a Probe Research Inc. survey of 1,000 voters conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press.
This Probe survey, conducted from Sept. 21 to 28, 2011, also correctly gauged that 43 percent of Manitobans would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, seven percent would vote Liberal and four percent would vote for the Green Party. The unofficial election night results show that the PCs received 44 percent of the vote, the Liberals finished with seven percent and the Greens with three percent – all well within the poll’s statistical margin-of-error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Probe’s forecast for seat-rich Winnipeg was equally precise: the survey indicated 53 percent of Winnipeggers would vote NDP (the same proportion of Winnipeggers actually voted for this party), 35 percent would vote PC (actual result was 36%), seven percent would vote Liberal (actual result was 8%) and three percent would vote Green (actual result also 3%).
“We believe so strongly in our methodology and our approach that we were very certain that our survey results would mirror reality on Election Day,” Scott MacKay, Probe Research’s founder and president, explained. “We put a lot of work into assessing our sampling and measurement techniques in order to make sure they are the best they can be.”
There are a number of factors that explain Probe’s success in this provincial election campaign. These include:
Belief in a proven methodology: Probe Research maintains that random digit dialing (RDD) with live telephone interviewers is the optimal method for conducting a pre-election survey. Although criticisms have been leveled about telephone surveys not capturing certain types of respondents, the fact remains that this methodology remains the only way to achieve a true “random” sample that is subject to a statistical margin of error.
Proper sampling: Probe Research Inc. takes every step to ensure that a sample of survey respondents accurately reflects the population from which it is drawn. This includes confirming there is the correct mix of respondents taking our surveys – rural and urban, young and old, well-off and just getting by. Probe’s samples include cellphone numbers to ensure those from “cell-only” households have an opportunity to participate in our surveys. Our interviewers are also rigorous about making callbacks to randomly-selected respondents several times to ensure these households have an opportunity to take part in our surveys.
Attention to detail: Our dedicated team of research professionals works diligently to deliver to our clients and to the public the most accurate, precise marketing and public opinion research results. Companies and organizations make critical decisions based on our information – it is our duty and responsibility to make sure we get it right for them.
“There has been a lot of recent debate in the media and elsewhere about how accurate polls really are,” MacKay added. “These results vindicate our industry, and highlight the fact that our research approach works. People can be confident that when they see the results of a Probe Research poll, they are getting the gold standard of market research.”
Founded in 1994, Probe Research is a dynamic, non-partisan market and public opinion research firm that is committed to providing accurate and reliable professional research services. Headquartered in Winnipeg, Manitoba, we serve more than 300 clients throughout North America, including federal and provincial governments, Crown corporations, Fortune 500 companies, small and medium-sized enterprises, associations and not-for-profit organizations.
View comparison of Manitoba and Winnipeg results
- 30 -
Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Probe Research
