Monday, October 03, 2011
Younger, Disadvantaged Manitobans Less Likely To Vote Oct. 4
Winnipeg – Many of those who will remain on the sidelines when Manitobans cast ballots on Tuesday, Oct. 4, will tend to be younger, socio-economically disadvantaged and based in rural Manitoba, a Probe Research survey of 1,000 Manitobans for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.
Overall, seven-in-ten Manitobans (72%) say they are very certain they will go to the polling stations Oct. 4th to cast ballots in the 2011 Manitoba election, while an additional 12 percent are somewhat certain to exercise their democratic franchise. One-in-ten (10%) may or may not vote Tuesday, while six percent are absolutely certain they will not cast a ballot in the upcoming election.
Those who were unlikely to vote included:
- Younger adults aged 18-34 years (27% "may not" or "will not" vote, compared to 13% of those aged 35-54 years and 8% of those aged 55 years and over).
- Adults with lower levels of formal education (21%, versus 11% among those who completed university or college).
- Those from lower-income households (23% of those earning $30,000-$59,999/year and 22% of those earning less than $30,000/year, versus 9% of those from households with incomes greater than $100,000/year).
- Those living outside Winnipeg (21%, versus 12% among Winnipeg residents).
In terms of reasons offered for not voting, the main rationale offered by non-voters is that they do not feel qualified or knowledgeable enough to vote (25%), with others indicating that they feel too busy (16%) or not sufficiently interested in politics to cast a ballot (14%).
This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via
telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011
among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of
1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.
View full release
Overall, seven-in-ten Manitobans (72%) say they are very certain they will go to the polling stations Oct. 4th to cast ballots in the 2011 Manitoba election, while an additional 12 percent are somewhat certain to exercise their democratic franchise. One-in-ten (10%) may or may not vote Tuesday, while six percent are absolutely certain they will not cast a ballot in the upcoming election.
Those who were unlikely to vote included:
- Younger adults aged 18-34 years (27% "may not" or "will not" vote, compared to 13% of those aged 35-54 years and 8% of those aged 55 years and over).
- Adults with lower levels of formal education (21%, versus 11% among those who completed university or college).
- Those from lower-income households (23% of those earning $30,000-$59,999/year and 22% of those earning less than $30,000/year, versus 9% of those from households with incomes greater than $100,000/year).
- Those living outside Winnipeg (21%, versus 12% among Winnipeg residents).
In terms of reasons offered for not voting, the main rationale offered by non-voters is that they do not feel qualified or knowledgeable enough to vote (25%), with others indicating that they feel too busy (16%) or not sufficiently interested in politics to cast a ballot (14%).
This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via
telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011
among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of
1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.
View full release
Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Democracy Project, Probe Research, Winnipeg Free Press
