Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Manitoba Liberals Squeezed By Two-Way Race (June 2011 Provincial Standings)
Winnipeg - Nearly three months out from Election Day, the latest Probe Research Inc. survey of 1,000 Manitoba adults reveals an increasingly polarized electorate as voters choose between the Progressive Conservative and New Democratic Parties while the Manitoba Liberals fade into obscurity.
After trailing the Progressive Conservatives for much of the past year, the New Democrats have regained their strength and are once again tied with the PCs at 44 percent. NDP support has increased by nine points since March (from 35% to 44%), while the PCs have dropped three percentage points (from 47% to 44%). This polarization of the provincial electorate has come largely at the expense of the Manitoba Liberal Party, which has the backing of just nine percent of decided voters (down from 14% in March).
Although much of the surge in NDP support comes from Winnipeg, where the party currently holds all but five seats, the NDP's standing has also improved significantly in rural Manitoba. Within Winnipeg, the NDP now have the support of fully one-half of the electorate (50%, versus 37% for the PCs and 11% for the Liberals). Outside the Perimeter Highway, the PCs continue to be far more popular than its rivals (55%, -7% since March), but the NDP now enjoys the backing of more than one-in-three voters outside the provincial capital (36%, up from 24% in March). Liberal support in this region, meanwhile, is practically non-existent (5%, down from 11%).
Other key findings from the survey include:
- Overall, a majority of Manitobans (70%) are satisfied with the overall direction of the province, although those living in Winnipeg are more likely than those outside the province's capital to indicate that the province is on the right path (74%, versus 63% respectively). NDP supporters (85%) are also far more inclined to feel that Manitoba is headed in the right direction, although a majority of those who prefer the Liberals and PCs (68% and 61% respectively) also feel the province is on the right track.
- Progressive Conservative supporters are more likely to follow through and actually cast a ballot for this party's candidates on Election Day, with 68 percent indicating they are "very certain" to vote PC on October 4th. About one-half (52%) of those who prefer the NDP are very committed to actually voting for this party, while just one-quarter of Liberal backers (26%) are positive this party will be their actual choice in the voting booth.
- Younger voters aged 18-34 years are more likely to support the NDP (46%, versus 37% who plan to vote for the PCs) and are also more likely to believe the province is heading in the right direction (76%, versus 67% of those aged 18-34 years and 66% of those aged 55 years and over).
- PC support is stronger among Older voters aged 55 years and over (53%, versus 40% NDP), individuals with higher household incomes (50% of those earning more than $100,000/year, versus 40% NDP) and those with a high school diploma or less (53%, versus 36% NDP).
Methodology: This province-wide Omnibus survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between June 7th and June 25th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.
View full results
After trailing the Progressive Conservatives for much of the past year, the New Democrats have regained their strength and are once again tied with the PCs at 44 percent. NDP support has increased by nine points since March (from 35% to 44%), while the PCs have dropped three percentage points (from 47% to 44%). This polarization of the provincial electorate has come largely at the expense of the Manitoba Liberal Party, which has the backing of just nine percent of decided voters (down from 14% in March).
Although much of the surge in NDP support comes from Winnipeg, where the party currently holds all but five seats, the NDP's standing has also improved significantly in rural Manitoba. Within Winnipeg, the NDP now have the support of fully one-half of the electorate (50%, versus 37% for the PCs and 11% for the Liberals). Outside the Perimeter Highway, the PCs continue to be far more popular than its rivals (55%, -7% since March), but the NDP now enjoys the backing of more than one-in-three voters outside the provincial capital (36%, up from 24% in March). Liberal support in this region, meanwhile, is practically non-existent (5%, down from 11%).
Other key findings from the survey include:
- Overall, a majority of Manitobans (70%) are satisfied with the overall direction of the province, although those living in Winnipeg are more likely than those outside the province's capital to indicate that the province is on the right path (74%, versus 63% respectively). NDP supporters (85%) are also far more inclined to feel that Manitoba is headed in the right direction, although a majority of those who prefer the Liberals and PCs (68% and 61% respectively) also feel the province is on the right track.
- Progressive Conservative supporters are more likely to follow through and actually cast a ballot for this party's candidates on Election Day, with 68 percent indicating they are "very certain" to vote PC on October 4th. About one-half (52%) of those who prefer the NDP are very committed to actually voting for this party, while just one-quarter of Liberal backers (26%) are positive this party will be their actual choice in the voting booth.
- Younger voters aged 18-34 years are more likely to support the NDP (46%, versus 37% who plan to vote for the PCs) and are also more likely to believe the province is heading in the right direction (76%, versus 67% of those aged 18-34 years and 66% of those aged 55 years and over).
- PC support is stronger among Older voters aged 55 years and over (53%, versus 40% NDP), individuals with higher household incomes (50% of those earning more than $100,000/year, versus 40% NDP) and those with a high school diploma or less (53%, versus 36% NDP).
Methodology: This province-wide Omnibus survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between June 7th and June 25th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.
View full results
Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party
