Winnipeg – NDP leader Greg Selinger enters the final days of the 2011 provincial election campaign with the highest approval ratings of any party leader, a Probe Research telephone survey of 1,000 Manitobans for the Winnipeg Free Press reveals.

Although Mr. Selinger’s approval ratings remain well below those of his predecessor, Gary Doer, Manitobans have warmed up to the new NDP leader more than his two main rivals for the Premier’s chair – PC leader Hugh McFadyen or Liberal leader Jon Gerrard. Mr. Selinger’s popularity can also be credited to the support of two crucial voter factions in this campaign: women voters and post-secondary graduates.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Probe Research

Winnipeg – As the 2011 Manitoba election campaign enters its final stretch, Greg Selinger’s New Democrats enjoy a slight lead over Hugh McFadyen’s Progressive Conservatives, according to a Probe Research telephone survey of 1,000 Manitoba adults conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press.

Forty-six percent of decided Manitoba voters surveyed said they would re-elect the NDP to a fourth term, compared to 43 percent who intend to cast ballots for the Progressive Conservatives on October 4th.

Jon Gerrard’s Liberals, meanwhile, have faltered significantly in this campaign, sitting at just seven percent support among decided voters and now polling in the single digits alongside the James Beddome-led Green Party (4%). Nearly one-in-four survey respondents (23%) were unable or unwilling to identify their party preference.

Other significant findings from this survey include:

- Manitoba's electorate is highly polarized between rural and urban voters. NDP support province-wide is fuelled by its significant strength in Winnipeg, where more than one-half of decided voters intend to cast a ballot for this party. Support for the NDP is consistent with where it stood in the 2007 election (at 53%), with the PCs making some gains among the urban electorate, mainly at the expense of the Liberals. Outside Winnipeg, the Progressive Conservatives register an equally substantial lead over their NDP (54% vs. 41%), which has lost support in this region since the 2007 vote. These results suggest the next Legislature may be even more sharply divided along regional lines.

- Within Winnipeg, the race between the PCs and NDP is tightest in Southwest and Northwest Winnipeg. The NDP enjoys a small lead over the PCs in Southeast Winnipeg and are far in front of their rivals in Northeast Winnipeg and the Core Area. The Liberals are strongest in Southwest Winnipeg, but sit well behind the PCs and NDP in that area of the provincial capital.

- The NDP has a substantial lead among female voters (51%, versus 38% PC and 7% Liberal), while men prefer the PCs (48%, versus 40% NDP and 6% Liberal).

- Progressive Conservative and NDP supporters are equally firm in their intention to vote for their chosen party (63% and 61%, respectively, are very certain to vote for these parties). Liberal support, on the other hand, is more "soft," with just one-third of those who prefer the Liberals (35%) absolutely certain they will cast a ballot for this party.

- None of the three parties have impressed the Manitoba electorate during this campaign, as today voters are more likely to have slightly more negative than positive impressions of the NDP, PCs and Liberals compared to the beginning of the campaign.

This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between September 21st and September 28th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population subgroups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Green Party of Manitoba, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party, Winnipeg Free Press

Winnipeg - Nearly three months out from Election Day, the latest Probe Research Inc. survey of 1,000 Manitoba adults reveals an increasingly polarized electorate as voters choose between the Progressive Conservative and New Democratic Parties while the Manitoba Liberals fade into obscurity.

After trailing the Progressive Conservatives for much of the past year, the New Democrats have regained their strength and are once again tied with the PCs at 44 percent. NDP support has increased by nine points since March (from 35% to 44%), while the PCs have dropped three percentage points (from 47% to 44%). This polarization of the provincial electorate has come largely at the expense of the Manitoba Liberal Party, which has the backing of just nine percent of decided voters (down from 14% in March).

Although much of the surge in NDP support comes from Winnipeg, where the party currently holds all but five seats, the NDP's standing has also improved significantly in rural Manitoba. Within Winnipeg, the NDP now have the support of fully one-half of the electorate (50%, versus 37% for the PCs and 11% for the Liberals). Outside the Perimeter Highway, the PCs continue to be far more popular than its rivals (55%, -7% since March), but the NDP now enjoys the backing of more than one-in-three voters outside the provincial capital (36%, up from 24% in March). Liberal support in this region, meanwhile, is practically non-existent (5%, down from 11%).

Other key findings from the survey include:

- Overall, a majority of Manitobans (70%) are satisfied with the overall direction of the province, although those living in Winnipeg are more likely than those outside the province's capital to indicate that the province is on the right path (74%, versus 63% respectively). NDP supporters (85%) are also far more inclined to feel that Manitoba is headed in the right direction, although a majority of those who prefer the Liberals and PCs (68% and 61% respectively) also feel the province is on the right track.

- Progressive Conservative supporters are more likely to follow through and actually cast a ballot for this party's candidates on Election Day, with 68 percent indicating they are "very certain" to vote PC on October 4th. About one-half (52%) of those who prefer the NDP are very committed to actually voting for this party, while just one-quarter of Liberal backers (26%) are positive this party will be their actual choice in the voting booth.

- Younger voters aged 18-34 years are more likely to support the NDP (46%, versus 37% who plan to vote for the PCs) and are also more likely to believe the province is heading in the right direction (76%, versus 67% of those aged 18-34 years and 66% of those aged 55 years and over).

- PC support is stronger among Older voters aged 55 years and over (53%, versus 40% NDP), individuals with higher household incomes (50% of those earning more than $100,000/year, versus 40% NDP) and those with a high school diploma or less (53%, versus 36% NDP).

Methodology: This province-wide Omnibus survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via telephone interviews conducted between June 7th and June 25th, 2011 among a random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults. With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/- 3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s population sub-groups. Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey. Minor statistical weighting has been applied to this sample to ensure that the age and gender balance correspond with the province as a whole.

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – Political parties broadcast television ads which criticize their opponents because they are seen to be effective. But a Probe Research survey of 1,001 Manitobans conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press suggests that the first salvo fired by the NDP against Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen may have backfired on the New Democrats, as those who recall the NDP‟s “Know Hugh” ad campaign are more likely to have a better opinion of the Progressive Conservatives than those who did not see these ads.

Voters were asked if they had recently seen, read or heard any advertisements about Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen. Slightly more than one-half (57%) said they had seen these ads, which were broadcast on local television stations and on the Internet as well as complemented by direct mail and social media campaigns. More than one-third (37%) had not seen the ads and an additional six percent were unsure whether they had seen them or not. None of these survey respondents had been exposed to the more recent ads by the Progressive Conservatives that feature Hugh McFadyen rebutting NDP criticisms of his previous policy statements...

Interestingly, those who recalled these advertisements critical of PC leader Hugh McFadyen were more likely to have a higher opinion of the Progressive Conservative party today than those who did not recall these ads (17%, versus 7% respectively). There is virtually no difference in the proportion of voters who say their view of the PCs has declined when looking at those familiar and unfamiliar with the anti-McFadyen ads (17%, versus 15% respectively). However, those who were aware of the ad were more likely to have a more-negative impression of the NDP today than those who did not see the ad (35%, versus 19% respectively).

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Labels: 2011 Manitoba Election, Hugh McFadyen, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – Exactly 12 months out from Manitoba’s first-ever fixed-date provincial election, the race between the province’s two major political parties continues to be tight, a new poll conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press by Probe Research Inc. reveals.

For the second straight quarter, the governing New Democratic Party and the opposition Progressive Conservatives remain statistically tied, with the PCs now sitting at 42 percent (up slightly from 40% in June) while the NDP now have the support of 40 percent of Manitoba’s decided voters (down slightly from 41% in June). As the graph on the following page illustrates, the PCs are ahead of the NDP for the first time since December 2008 – however, their lead is within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

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Labels: Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – Greg Selinger has a long way to go before he can reach the same levels of popularity as his predecessor, Gary Doer, but the Manitoba premier and NDP leader is the most popular provincial party leader in the province, according to a new Probe Research poll conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press.

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Labels: Greg Selinger, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg – Premier Gary Doer’s sudden retirement as leader of the Manitoba New Democratic Party has not affected the party’s popularity with Manitoba voters, a new Probe Research Inc./Winnipeg Free Press survey finds.

The provincial New Democrats remain the most popular party in the province, with 45 percent of Manitobans stating they would vote for the NDP in a hypothetical provincial election. For the NDP, which will choose a new leader October 17, this represents no change since the last sounding conducted in June 2009.

With the support of 38 percent of decided voters, the Hugh McFadyen-led PCs have increased their popularity by two percentage points and have shrunk the NDP’s advantage from eight percentage points to seven. The Liberals, meanwhile, remain far behind both parties, with just 12 percent of decided voters backing the party led by Jon Gerrard (-2% from June). Four percent of respondents would back other parties not represented in the Legislature, while 15 percent of voters were undecided.

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Labels: Gary Doer, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party

Winnipeg, Manitoba – After nearly 10 years as premier, Gary Doer’s leadership continues to win praise from two-thirds of Manitoba adults, double the approval ratings given to Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen or Liberal leader Jon Gerrard. As well, the NDP now holds a ten-point lead in voter support, largely based on strong support from Winnipeg voters. Probe Research conducted this most recent random and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults for the Winnipeg Free Press between March 9th and March 25th, 2009.

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Labels: Gary Doer, Hugh McFadyen, Jon Gerrard, Manitoba Liberal Party, Manitoba politics, NDP, Probe Research, Progressive Conservative Party