Saturday, September 26, 2015
Deadlocked in Manitoba (Sept. 2015 Federal Voting Intentions)
Winnipeg – The tightest three-way federal election in Canadian history is turning into just a two-horse race in Manitoba, with the federal Conservatives and Liberals deadlocked in a new Probe Research Inc. survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press.
This sounding of a random and representative sample of 1,000 Manitobans shows that roughly four-in-ten decided voters (39% each) would cast a ballot for the Stephen Harper-led Conservatives or the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals. This marks a major shift in voter support since the 2011 federal election, when the Liberals finished a distant third in Manitoba with just 17 percent of the popular vote. Support for the Conservatives, meanwhile, has fallen 14 percentage points since the last campaign (from 53% to 39%).
Although many of these former Conservative supporters have drifted into the Liberal camp, the Liberal surge is also coming at the expense of the New Democrats. Currently, fewer than one-in-five Manitobans would vote for the Thomas Mulcair-led NDP (18%, down from 26% in 2011). Four percent of those surveyed, meanwhile, would vote for a Green Party candidate – which is the same level of support that party captured in 2011.
Seventeen percent of Manitobans surveyed remain undecided about which party they would vote for in the upcoming federal election.