Friday, December 26, 2014
NDP Support Drops To New Low ... Again
Winnipeg - In the face of unprecedented political turmoil, a new Probe Research Inc. survey conducted for the Winnipeg Free Press finds that the provincial NDP’s support has reverted to its lowest recorded level, but has not crashed below its previous nadir.
One-in-four decided Manitoba voters (26%) would now cast a ballot for a NDP candidate. This is down four percentage points from September and is tied with the party’s lowest-ever level of support previously recorded in a Probe Research Inc. quarterly survey (26% in December 2013).
The Progressive Conservatives, meanwhile, are surging (48%, up from 42% in September). The party’s increase in support is coming mainly from outside Winnipeg, where it is now the preferred party for two out of three voters (65%, compared to 15% each for the NDP and Liberals). Within the provincial capital, the PCs have a slight lead over the NDP (37% and 33% respectively).
Province-wide, the Liberals continue to enjoy the support of one-in-five voters (19%, -1% versus September). Liberal support is slightly higher in Winnipeg (22%) than in rural and northern Manitoba (15%). Seven percent of voters, meanwhile, would cast ballots for the Green Party and other parties not represented in the Legislature (-1% versus September). Fourteen percent of those surveyed were undecided.
Other highlights of this survey include:
- The PCs hold a statistically significant advantage over the NDP and Liberals in northwest Winnipeg (41%, versus 29% NDP and 26% Liberal), northeast Winnipeg (42%, versus 32% and 22% respectively) and southwest Winnipeg (42%, versus 31% and 18%). The PCs and NDP are statistically tied in southeast Winnipeg (35% and 34%, compared to 21% for the Liberals, while the NDP continues to be the most popular party ahead of the second-choice Liberals in the Core area (40%, versus 25% who would vote Liberal and 22% who would vote for the PCs).
- More than one-half of men would now vote for a Progressive Conservative candidate (56%, versus 21% NDP and 15% Liberal). The PCs are also the most popular party among women, though their advantage is less-pronounced than it is among men (40%, versus 30% NDP and 23% Liberal).
- Decided voters over the age of 35 are significantly more likely to prefer the PCs to other parties (52%). Among younger voters, two-in-five (40%) would vote for a PC candidate, compared to 28 percent who would vote for the NDP and 25 percent who prefer the Liberals.
- The Liberals are statistically tied with the PCs for support among lower-income Manitobans (31% and 34%, respectively, among those earning less than $30,000/year, with 21% indicating they would vote for a NDP candidate). The PCs enjoy more support among middle and higher-income earners.
View detailed graphs and methodology